Update the Guess

You walk in with a guess, call it your best hunch Ten percent chance, that's where you start the bunch Then a new piece of evidence lands in your hand You don't throw out the hunch, you let it slightly expand

Update the guess, don't replace it, don't defend it blind Update the guess, that's how a careful mind Moves through the fog, not certain, never was Just less wrong than it was a moment ago, because

A test comes back positive, don't panic at the sound Ask how rare the thing is that it's testing for, first, before you're bound A rare disease, a common false alarm Multiply it right, and the panic loses half its charm

Update the guess, don't replace it, don't defend it blind Update the guess, that's how a careful mind Weighs the old belief against the new thing it just heard Neither one alone gets to have the final word

Your gut wants a yes or a no, clean and done Reality hands you a dial, and asks you to keep moving it, one Piece of evidence at a time, patient, unafraid To land somewhere between certain and betrayed

Update the guess, don't replace it, don't defend it blind Update the guess, that's how a careful mind Stays right more often than the one who never bends A belief that can move is a belief that never ends